Global Scans · Economy · Weekly Summary

DRIVER: The global economy still faces serious headwinds and political uncertainty potentially balanced by the enormous promise of technological advancements in many fields. Read on to get a solid handle on the opportunities and risks you and your organization may likely face and set your sails accordingly.

• [New] South Africa, Africa's most industrialised country, will become Africa's biggest economy with a GDP of $373 billion - a position the IMF expects it to retain until 2027. Business Insider Africa
• [New] Even with significant reductions in CO2 emissions starting today, the global economy is poised to experience a 19% decrease in income by 2050 due to the impacts of climate change. SciTechDaily
• [New] Global warming of 3 °C increases the risk of extreme rainfall worldwide, which reduces global GDP, on average, by 0.2% - which, at the current size of the global economy, would equal US$ 200 billion. ScienceDaily
• [New] In the euro area and other advanced economies in Europe, activity and core inflation have fallen faster than anticipated, but labor markets remain tight and negotiated wage growth is still vigorous. IMF eLibrary
• [New] The global negative implications become more visible in 2025, as tighter financial conditions increasingly affect activity in advanced economies (outside of the United States) and emerging markets. IMF eLibrary
• [New] Inflation in advanced economies and emerging markets excluding China is 20 basis points lower, on average, during the 2024-26 period for both headline and core measures. IMF eLibrary
• [New] The fall in inflation is persistent but ultimately temporary: monetary and fiscal policy accommodation help the initial shock to demand fade, and China's inflation gradually converges back to baseline after 2026. IMF eLibrary
• [New] Advanced economies with debt levels above 100% of GDP experience increases in both term and sovereign premiums that peak at 100 basis points by 2026, while emerging markets experience increases in both premiums that peak at 150 basis points, also by 2026. IMF eLibrary
• [New] Unexpectedly persistent US inflation could trigger an upward revision to US interest rate expectations and cause a US dollar appreciation. IMF eLibrary
• [New] As the global economy approaches a soft landing, the near-term priority for central banks is to ensure that inflation comes down smoothly; they should neither ease policies prematurely nor delay too long and risk causing target undershoots. IMF eLibrary
• [New] In the near term, new expansionary measures such as tax cuts, increased fiscal transfers, and infrastructure investment could boost economic activity, especially in economies in which sovereign risk is perceived as low, and raise global growth above current projections. IMF eLibrary
• [New] Among other advanced economies, growth in the United Kingdom is projected to rise from an estimated 0.1% in 2023 to 0.5% in 2024, as the lagged negative effects of high energy prices wane, then to 1.5% in 2025, as disinflation allows financial conditions to ease and real incomes to recover. IMF eLibrary
• [New] The projection for global growth in 2024 and 2025 is below the historical (2000-19) annual average of 3.8%, reflecting restrictive monetary policies and withdrawal of fiscal support, as well as low underlying productivity growth. IMF eLibrary
• [New] Monetary policy projections: With inflation projected to continue declining toward targets and longer-term inflation expectations remaining anchored, policy rates of central banks in major advanced economies are generally expected to start declining in the second half of 2024. IMF eLibrary
• [New] The price of energy fell faster than expected from its peak, in part as a result of increased non-OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) oil production and increased natural gas output, most notably in the United States. IMF eLibrary
• [New] After years of analysis of the Blur price, crypto experts are ready to provide their BLUR cost estimation for 2032. changelly.com
• [New] In recent weeks, concern over the US economy and stickier-than-expected UK inflation has caused traders to slash their bets on rate cuts from the Bank of England. CityAM
• [New] Global heating will inflict economic losses on the global economy of $38 trillion a year by 2049 as extreme weather ravages agricultural yields, harms labour productivity, and destroys infrastructure. CleanTechnica
• [New] Tougher sanctions enforcement against Iranian oil shipments by the U.S. could raise oil prices but would risk higher inflation and pump prices for U.S. motorists in an election year. AP News
• [New] Oil prices climbed close to six-week highs last week as markets prepared for a potential retaliation by Iran to a suspected Israeli strike on its embassy in Syria earlier this month. Yahoo Finance
• [New] There is a clear indication that over consumption of antimicrobial in humans has led to resistant pathogens that adversely affects the human health, perhaps, among the top ten list, AMR is considered as the potential global threats to human health, food security, and development,,. PubMed Central (PMC)
• [New] China's and Germany's reliance on external demand rather than stimulative domestic policies to bolster their economies could cause rising tensions with trading partners and put a damper on global growth. Brookings

Last updated: 23 April 2024