Italy

WHAT'S NEXT?: The Italian economy is already in a fragile state and a now likely period of political uncertainty would be likely to do further damage. In particular, Italy's banking industry is seen as vulnerable to a loss of confidence. Italy could be the next domino to fall out of the EU through increasing populist party support.

• [New] After North America, Europe is anticipated to offer lucrative opportunities for the vaccines market as Europe's economic hubs, namely, Italy, Spain, France, Belgium, Germany, Netherlands, and the UK, have been crippled by the COVID-19 pandemic.
• [New] Both Italy and France are at risk of slipping into recession, and the IMF said it sees more dire possibilities ahead for the global economy.
• Other countries are expected to follow through on their promises to eliminate coal power even earlier, including France by 2022, Slovakia and Portugal by 2023, the U.K. by 2023, and Ireland and Italy by 2025.
• Euro zone economies will contract by 7.5% in 2020, with hard-hit Italy seeing its GDP fall 9.1% and contractions of 8.0% in Spain, 7.0% in Germany and 7.2% in France.
• Oxford Economics expects Italy and Spain to suffer a particularly severe recession in the first half of the year, with a drastic hit to GDP of more than 10 pc for both countries.
• More European countries plan to join the coal-free future: France is aiming to be coal-free by 2022; Slovakia and Portugal by 2023; the U.K. by 2024; and Ireland and Italy by 2025.
• N Italy, for example, the government is targeting 30 GW of additional solar PV by 2030 but it has designed an auction that puts solar PV at a significant disadvantage to onshore wind.
• France, Portugal, the United Kingdom, Ireland, Italy and Slovakia are projected to transition away from coal by 2025 at the latest.
• Seven more countries have made preparations to move on from coal by 2025, including France (2022), Slovakia (2023), Portugal (2023), the UK (2024), Ireland (2025) and Italy (2025).
• Six more countries are expected to close coal plants by 2025 or earlier, including France (2022), Slovakia and Portugal (2023), the UK (2024), Ireland (2025), and Italy (2025).
• In 2050 Portugal is projected to have the oldest median age in the EU-28 at 52.6 years, with Italy just behind at 52.2; in 2070, the two countries with the highest median ages will be Portugal and Croatia.
• UBS expects Spain, France, Germany and Italy to add some 800 high-speed rail units over the next 10 years, which will generate between $43.48 billion and $65.22 billion of revenue opportunities.
• In addition to the large public debt, debt rollover risk was high, since debt maturities alone over the next four years amounted to €1.83 trillion, roughly the size of Italy's GDP.
• Risks of default among Italian companies could double if the crisis provoked by the coronavirus outbreak lasts for the rest of the year.
• The coronavirus outbreak and a weak economic outlook could trigger a fall of more than 15 percent in car sales in Italy this year.
• Ad spend in areas of mainland Europe such as Spain, Italy and Germany are expected to see an overall decrease in ad spend growth this year and in 2021.
• In late 2019, the UK's economy was forecast to grow by 1% in 2020, which was slightly faster than many other European economies such as Italy and Germany but slightly behind France.
• Eurozone growth is expected to slow to 0.9% in 2020 as a recession in Italy and slowdown in France offset an improvement in Germany and stability in Spain.
• While growth in the age group 15-64 - which is how the working age population is currently still defined - stagnated in the 2010s, it will shrink by almost 4% over the coming decade for the eurozone as a whole and by over 6% in countries like Germany and Italy.
• The OECD has cut Europe's GDP estimate by 0.3% while Italy, the country most affected in Europe so far, is expected to lose 0.4% of its GDP.
• In 2018 the Italian government announced a decree that will provide an incentive for up to 1.1 BCMA of biomethane production for the use in cars until 2022.
• Policy changes in five key European countries - France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the UK - could unlock the potential for 50 to 100 GW of gas to be genuinely ready to fit CCS by 2030, transforming the prospects for gas to play a large role in decarbonising Europe's power sector.

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Last updated: 29 May 2020