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Global Scans · Russia · Weekly Summary


WHAT'S NEXT?: Russia is becoming an independent geopolitical actor. Russia will seek to maintain the world's strategic balance of power. A resurgent Russia is likely to continue to stir up trouble across much of Central and East Europe and the Middle East. It remains to be seen whether a rapprochement is possible with the U.S. And, Russia's economy is expected to return to modest growth in late 2016 and 2017, further strengthening its hand.

  • [New] The EU's foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell, said he will propose that the EU uses 90% of the revenues from Russian assets frozen in Europe to buy arms for Ukraine via the European Peace Facility fund. The Guardian
  • [New] Drones could give Ukraine a technological edge over Moscow, given its shortages in artillery shells and other more traditional weapons, though Russia's drone industry is also developing rapidly. The Guardian
  • [New] The Caucasus: Iran is likely concerned that Armenia's deteriorating relations with Russia and outreach to the West could increase NATO's presence along its northern border. Institute for the Study of War
  • [New] Russia's Barents Sea Fleet was put on high alert as submarines from the UK and US submarines were reportedly attempting to launch strikes and threaten the North Russian coastline. Future
  • [New] The Group of Seven (G7) countries warned Iran against providing ballistic missiles to Russia to use in its war against Ukraine and said it would respond swiftly with new sanctions, including possibly banning Iran Air from Europe. Al Jazeera
  • [New] Ukraine has unleashed a flurry of attacks on Russian oil processing facilities ahead of elections that will hand Vladimir Putin a fifth presidential term. financialpost
  • [New] The Ukrainian military's successful downing of five Russian military aircraft within three days in early March has spotlighted the vulnerabilities in Russia's air power and prompted a closer examination of its fleet's sustainability. BNN
  • [New] Nuclear weapons would not necessarily deter China and Russia from risking a coordinated attempt to take Taiwan and the rest of Ukraine. EL PAIS English
  • [New] The European Union's ambition to transition towards renewable energy sources aligns seamlessly with North Africa's solar potential, offering a promising avenue to reduce dependency on traditional fossil fuels and mitigate geopolitical risks associated with energy imports, notably from Russia. Atlantic Council
  • [New] Russian forces have shown the capacity to adapt to fighting in Ukraine and will likely aim to scale lessons learned from the war in Ukraine to ongoing efforts to prepare the Russian military for a potential long-term confrontation with NATO. Daily Kos
  • [New] Pressing shortages in air defence systems and missiles will likely dramatically reduce Ukraine's ability to defend against Russian strikes both in rear and frontline areas in the coming weeks if not addressed rapidly. Daily Kos
  • [New] The provision of Western security assistance will likely play a critical role in Ukraine's ability to hold territory now and to repel a new Russian offensive effort in the coming months. Daily Kos
  • [New] Russian forces will likely continue ongoing offensive efforts to destabilize Ukrainian defensive lines in Spring 2024 while also preparing for a forecasted new offensive effort in Summer 2024. Daily Kos
  • [New] People used dye, molotov cocktails and fires to protest against Russia's elections, which are certain to extend Vladimir Putin's 24-year rule until at least 2030. The Guardian
  • [New] US and allies warn Iran of new sanctions if Tehran moves forward with a ballistic missile deal with Russia. ABC 6 News - kaaltv.com
  • [New] Russia calculates the export moratorium will give it time to repair refineries damaged by fires and drone attacks on its energy infrastructure and to address internal gasoline shortages and high pricing. New Lines Institute
  • [New] Even a serious crisis could precipitate the deployment of new U.S. military assets, including missile defence systems that Russia has previously opposed in Northeast Asia as in Europe. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
  • [New] Ukraine has launched drone attacks on at least three oil refineries deep inside Russia, with a Ukrainian defence source saying that Kiev is implementing a well-planned strategy to decrease Russian economic potential. Just Security
  • [New] If Russia attacked the United States with intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) carrying nuclear warheads, the U.S. military would be able to respond with a nuclear strike from its submarines, which patrol around the world nonstop with nukes at the ready. The National Interest
  • [New] The escalating nuclear threat from Russia, accentuated by its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, puts a spotlight on President Vladimir Putin's unpredictable demeanour and alarming rhetoric on nuclear weaponry. The National Interest
  • Ukraine-based anti-Putin Russian paramilitaries supporting Kiev urged civilians to flee Belgorod and Kursk, threatening large-scale attacks on military targets in the Russian border cities. Al Jazeera
  • Putin stated that Russia is always in a state of nuclear readiness and that Russia will only use nuclear weapons to protect the existence of the Russian state. Institute for the Study of War

Last updated: 23 March 2024



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