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WHAT'S NEXT?: Rising tensions around are bringing new and regional geopolitical threats and the possibility of eventual global war. Keep abreast of the unfolding drama and know where the risks and opportunities are in the world.

  • [New] China's capabilities could pose a threat to President Biden's hopes of reducing the role of nuclear weapons in American defenses. The New York Times
  • [New] The activities of Yan Bindiga and Yan Ta' adda groups and other similar groups constitute acts of terrorism that can lead to a breakdown of public order and safety and is a threat to national security and the corporate existence of Nigeria. Punch Newspapers
  • [New] When the risk of armed conflict is high, ARSOF can help to defend against proxy forces used by U.S. adversaries and can be used to disrupt adversary operations in denied environments or to impose costs on adversaries. Rand Corporation
  • [New] Rohingya women in refugee camps in Bangladesh, already displaced by conflict, faced further threats and violence from criminal gangs trying to stifle their rights or keep them from speaking out about abuses. The New Humanitarian
  • [New] Oil-rich Iraq, devastated by decades of war and chaos, is one of the countries most threatened by climate change and already faces intense summer heat, water stress and frequent droughts. Naharnet
  • [New] The United States is diligently working with Australia and the UK to goad China into what they hope will be a limited war over Taiwan. Friday Everyday
  • [New] Iran should not assume that the U.S. and its allies will bow to Iran if it moves close to securing nuclear weapons. NBC News
  • [New] The submarine deal among the US, the UK and Australia deliberately escalates regional tensions, stimulates [an] arms race, threatens regional peace and stability, and undermines international nuclear non-proliferation efforts. The Guardian
  • [New] Reorganizing SFA as a long-term activity can help build partner relationships and extend US influence, but it comes with risks and trade-offs: it could draw the United States into unnecessary domestic political conflict in other countries or risk antagonizing other states. Modern War Institute
  • [New] Regarding war, China might seek a form of economic self-sufficiency that would allow it to more credibly threaten war against the United States, but it probably would struggle to achieve a level of autarky that would cut it off from all international economic risk in a conflict. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
  • [New] The existential threat of nuclear catastrophe does not present as compelling a case for the mutuality of interest shared by the Soviets and Americans during the Cold War, but the threat that war between the United States and China would present to the global economy might offer an analogue. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
  • [New] American exceptionalism is deeply rooted, and it will complicate the United States' ability to play the role it seeks in the world, impede its efforts to gain influence, and intensify its conflict with China. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
  • [New] We may find by 2035 that deplatforming and silencing opinions too quickly becomes a partisan weapon, and there's widespread pushback against it, even if it means that radical and extreme voices again garner outsized attention. Pew Research Center: Internet, Science & Tech
  • [New] When there is no end of war declaration North Korea, China, and Russia will use their propaganda and agitation departments to blame the U.S. as the obstacle to peace. FDD
  • [New] The U.S. government recognizes that the laws of war require as a minimum that feasible precautions must be taken in conducting an attack to reduce the risk of harm to civilians. Just Security
  • [New] At the height of the Cold War, Moscow could use or threaten to use a relatively small fraction of its 11,000 strategic long-range nuclear warheads to take out upwards of 80% of U.S. nuclear forces, leaving a remaining imbalance with which to coerce the United States to stand down in a crisis. The National Interest
  • [New] Limited economic opportunity in the Fezzan region of southern Libya has been a driver of local conflicts and fueled a narrative among youth of pervasive marginalization. United States Institute of Peace
  • [New] China's diplomats are believed to be making fresh efforts to speed up negotiations with ASEAN on the Code of Conduct that is intended to reduce the risk of conflict in the South China Sea. Radio Free Asia
  • [New] As tensions flare between Russia and NATO countries, the ELN is sharing recent work on concrete de-escalation measures that NATO and Russia could take to reduce the risks of an unintended escalation. europeanleadershipnetwork
  • [New] The United States and its European allies now find themselves in the dangerous position of having little opportunity to directly discuss Arctic military security with Russia, raising the chances of conflict due to miscalculation. The National Interest
  • [New] India should use TPF as an opportunity to put together a market access package that will decrease trade tensions with the US, while giving the Biden administration political cover to remove the Section 232 tariffs, which, ultimately, will benefit Indian firms. Hindustan Times
  • As China increasingly asserts its clout as a global power, potentially rivaling the US on several fronts, there is a growing risk that competition could turn to conflict. DW.COM
  • Greater opacity about defense planning and investment priorities (to the extent plausible and desirable in a democracy) could help the United States prevent China from adapting to U.S. defense investments by prioritizing planning for war in other time periods. War on the Rocks

Last updated: 30 November 2021