Conflict

WHAT'S NEXT?: Rising tensions around are bringing new and regional geopolitical threats and the possibility of eventual global war. Keep abreast of the unfolding drama and know where the risks and opportunities are in the world.

• [New] Reeling from the largest GDP declines since World War II, major economies are passing a variety of stimulus packages to prompt growth and return to positive yearly GDP in 2021.
• [New] For Iran, reeling under sanctions reimposed by the U.S., its new $400 billion long-term agreement with China could be an economic lifeline, while China could enhance its strategic influence in a region where the U.S. has built a strong presence since the Second World War.
• [New] President Trump's approval rating continues to trend down, heightening the risks that he concludes he has nothing to lose by ramping up tensions with China beyond the current (mostly) war of words in a way that threatens the economic outlook in order to shore up his base.
• The number of acutely food insecure people in countries affected by conflict, natural disaster or economic crises is predicted to increase from 149 million pre-COVID - 19 to 270 million before the end of the year if assistance is not provided urgently.
• Australia will launch A future program to develop a directed energy weapon system able to be integrated onto ADF protected and armored vehicles, and capable of defeating armored vehicles up to and including main battle tanks.
• Edinburgh scientists are working with the United Nations to develop an early warning system to spot where climate change could impact areas already affected by conflict or natural disasters.
• Sudan is at risk of relapsing back into political instability and potential conflict, only a year after long-time ruler Omar al-Bashir was removed from power.
• Shell cut its dividend for the first time since World War II, and BP said it would review projects against price forecasts that are 20 to 30% lower.
• China is not interested in waging a new Cold War with the United States, because it could hurt Chinese development and global interests.
• Countries affected by conflict are disproportionately impacted by climate change, a double threat that pushes people out of their homes, disrupts food production, cuts off supplies, amplifies diseases and weakens health-care services.
• The Thai economy is expected to contract as much as 6% in 2020 mainly because of Covid-19 outbreak and trade war, with some recovery in the second half following easing of lockdown and travel restrictions.
• Despite recent successes in the war on terrorism, there are three reasons that the United States will probably still face an ongoing threat for the next decade from radical Islamic terrorist groups in the Islamic world.
• Terrorism Index in the United States is expected to reach 5.80 by the end of 2020.
• Security and maritime risks will remain high in the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz in 2020, as the war in Yemen continues.
• In 2020, the global economy is still running the risk of moving downhill because of, among other things, geopolitical tension, uncertainty of international trade, climate change and the spread of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in various countries around the world.
• The U.S. trade war with China cut $1.7 trillion from the market value of listed American firms and will reduce their investment growth rate by almost 2 percentage points by year end.
• The global trade conflict cut US investment growth by 0.3 percentage points by the end of 2019 and will slash another 1.6 points by the end of 2020.
• For 2020, the tariffs and trade conflict with China, if not resolved quickly, could significantly affect business investment and result in lower equipment demand.
• The year 2019 will be remembered for several significant developments in East Asia's political economy, particularly the prolonged trade war between the US and China and mass and violent protests in Hong Kong.
• While the risk of military conflict remains low as Russia also suffers from the effects of the virus, NATO's weakened state raises the possibility that Russia could see the current situation as an opportunity for a hostile act.
• By 2023 U.S. debt held by the public will surpass records set in the post-World War II years.

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Last updated: 04 August 2020