Global Scans · Conflict · Weekly Summary

WHAT'S NEXT?: Rising tensions around are bringing new and regional geopolitical threats and the possibility of eventual global war. Keep abreast of the unfolding drama and know where the risks and opportunities are in the world.

• [New] Sovereign debt levels had reached post-war highs in many advanced economies and were projected to rise even further to around 120% of GDP in advanced economies by 2030. World Socialist Web Site
• [New] The fierce competition has fueled a global talent war for top AI researchers and led to a patchwork of data sovereignty laws that threaten to fragment the once-borderless cloud. Grand Pinnacle Tribune
• [New] Young people are split between their fear of conflict and of being overrun by Ethiopia, whose wartime atrocities are still in recent memory. Africa Daily
• [New] The threat to American space systems is not simply anti-satellite weapons, but also jamming and cyber attacks. Moon Daily
• [New] Diplomatic tension is expected in Hungarian-Slovak relations. Szerbia, Horvatorszag, Bosznia | Balk.hu
• [New] Rwanda is leading the region towards increased instability and war, Waltz warned. The Guardian
• [New] NATO, Russia, and Ukraine should agree that Ukraine will not manufacture or deploy nuclear weapons on its territory, and that Russia will not deploy any of its tactical nuclear weapons in Russian-controlled parts of Ukraine, nor in states outside of Russia that border on Ukraine. The National Interest
• [New] Ending the Ukraine War will ultimately require some US-Russia nuclear arms agreement. The National Interest
• [New] Russia could be ready to test Europe in a conflict within the next three to four years. TRT World
• [New] Since the start of the Russia-Ukraine war, the Black Sea has been transformed into an active danger zone for merchant shipping, where civilian seafarers face the real and ongoing threat of mines, drones, and missile strikes. gCaptain
• [New] The International Transport Workers' Federation has condemned recent attacks on vessels operating in the Black Sea following the third Ukrainian sea drone strike on a Russian shadow fleet tanker, warning that civilian seafarers must never be treated as targets in conflict. gCaptain
• [New] There were concerns among diplomats that rivalries between the UAE and Saudi Arabia, on display in the south of Yemen, could lead to a deepening of the conflict in Sudan. The Guardian
• [New] Significant U.S. diplomatic engagement will be required to mitigate the risk of conflict of Russia with Europe. JD Supra
• [New] Theater-Scale Threats Demand Theater-Scale Solutions The conflict in Ukraine has been described by defence scholars as the first drone war due to the scale and intensity of attacks. PR-Inside.com
• [New] The legislative change responds to shifts in terrorism risk. Insurance Business
• [New] A deal where Ukraine is not able to properly defend itself and the Russians get amnesty for whatever war crimes have been committed would guarantee that Russia will attack European countries within the next couple years. Meduza
• [New] The US was not yet satisfied with Europe's defence spending amid Russia's ongoing war in Ukraine and said the US may stop participating in NATO by 2027 if European countries do not increase their investment. Al Jazeera
• [New] China is helping Russia reconstitute its military, and in exchange, Russia is providing China with valuable military technology and assistance that could give it an edge over the United States in a conflict. The Atlantic
• [New] Russia is developing a new satellite meant to carry a nuclear weapon as an antisatellite capability, which, if detonated, could cause devastating consequences for the United States, the global economy, and the world in general. The Atlantic
• [New] Russia escalates pressure on Europe amid the Ukraine conflict by increasing cyber activities against energy systems, probing offshore assets, and applying irregular tactics in the Black Sea and eastern Mediterranean to deter deeper EU support for Ukraine without risking direct NATO confrontation. GeopoliticsUnplugged Substack
• [New] Given the ongoing war in Ukraine and continued pressure from Russia, diminished US engagement could weaken the sense of reliability that underpins collective defence guarantees and NATO's Article 5. Atlantic Council
• [New] Shifts in the global balance of power, growing competition over geopolitical interests, and the weakening of diplomatic mechanisms have led to increased tensions in many parts of the world raising the risk of a large-scale war. EDNEWS
• [New] The Russian arms industry is struggling to find enough skilled labour to support the projected rates of production needed to sustain Russia's war aims. Space War

Last updated: 16 December 2025