Poverty

WHAT'S NEXT?: Due to a deteriorating global economic outlook, more than 130 out of 189 countries will experience reduced income growth, with the average global GDP growth rate falling from 4.1 percent to 3.1 percent between 2011 and 2030. Almost all of the countries with large numbers remaining in extreme poverty in 2030 will be in sub-Saharan Africa or South Asia.

• [New] In a scenario where consumption falls by a fifth, the number of people living in extreme poverty could increase in 2020 by between 420 million and 580 million.
• [New] Some 50 million people risk falling into extreme poverty in 2020 owing to the pandemic.
• [New] 6% of the global population would still be living in extreme poverty in 2030, missing the target of ending poverty.
• [New] An estimated 71 million people are expected to be pushed back into extreme poverty in 2020, the first rise in global poverty since 1998, and by the year 2030, more than 100 million people would have relapsed into poverty.
• [New] The UN remains committed to the existing timeline of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) to end global poverty in all its forms and to reduce inequality within every country by 2030.
• [New] As many as 100 million people are expected to be pushed back into extreme poverty in 2020 - the first rise in global poverty since 1998.
• [New] In Pakistan, poverty is expected to rise from 50 million to 125 million people, while in Lebanon poverty levels may reach 50% and extreme poverty double from 10 to 20% in 2020.
• [New] The IMF is projecting an economic contraction in Latin America of 9.3% for 2020, the greatest on record, while the UN projects 10 million more people in poverty and 14 million more hungry in 2020.
• [New] Global poverty can be brought down to about 3% of the world's population by 2030 if an average annual global economic growth rate of nearly 10% in GDP per capita is achieved, and if income inequality is reduced by half.
• As many as half a billion people could be pushed into poverty and three dozen countries could experience famines in 2020, pushing an additional 130 million people to the brink of starvation.
• The World Bank has projected a significant rise to the number of people living below the poverty level - up to 52% by end of 2020.
• The COVID-19 pandemic and resulting recession are set to trigger the first increase in global poverty in three decades, pushing 265 million people to the point of starvation by the end of the year.
• An additional 10 million people in fragile and conflict-affected settings will be pushed into extreme poverty just in 2020, with large countries such as Nigeria and DRC particularly affected.
• The World Bank predicts the first rise in extreme poverty in two decades, with an additional 71-100 million people living on less than $1.90 per day.
• Reducing income inequality in society must become a key strategy to eradicate extreme poverty by 2030.
• The 'poverty miracle' scenario, which relies on the highly ambitious assumptions of 9.7% annual average growth in GDP per capita and 50% reduction in cumulative income inequality, would lower the number of people in extreme poverty from 653 million to 230 million people by 2030, a decline of 65%.
• If the 2.5% GDP per capita growth rate in the least-developed countries in the past ten years is maintained during the decade of action, income inequality would need to be reduced by 75% to eradicate extreme poverty by 2030.
• A reduction in income inequality can provide critical momentum toward the global goal of ending extreme poverty by 2030.
• Poverty rates have edged higher in parts of Latin America and the Caribbean as well as Western Asia: The latest projections suggest that in 2020 alone, COVID-19 pandemic could lead to up to 49 million people falling into poverty.
• 29 million people in Latin America could fall into poverty, reversing a decade of efforts to narrow income inequality.
• Sub-Saharan Africa will experience its first recession in 25 years, and DfID modelling suggests that an additional 70 million people could end up living in extreme poverty.
• Experts think 50 million people risk falling into extreme poverty this year due to COVID-19.

See full forecast

Last updated: 07 August 2020