Global Scans · Trade · Weekly Summary

WHAT'S NEXT?: Global trade policies could be upended with a new President in the White House, Brexit, a potential break-up of the European Union and China reacting to these changes in profound ways.

• [New] Recent moves have seen tariff rates climb higher than J.P. Morgan Global Research had anticipated, with the U.S. effective tariff rate now expected to be approaching 20%. J.P. MORGAN
• [New] Canadian businesses that export CUSMA-compliant goods will continue to benefit from the CUSMA with respect to the new import surcharge, subject to compliance with applicable origin and documentation requirements. PwC
• [New] China's March outlook is front-loaded with activity, inflation and trade releases that can quickly set the regional risk tone. GO Markets
• [New] Donald Trump's tariffs and threats to Nato ally Greenland have, however, significantly increased support for joining the EU in both countries. The Week
• [New] The sharp decline reflects growing investor anxiety over a perfect storm of headwinds: shifting U.S. trade policies, infrastructure bottlenecks, and an aggressive new competitive threat from domestic rivals. FinancialContent
• [New] Canada and Mexico will be exempt from the new Section 122 tariffs, due to their North American trade pact with the U.S. Digiday
• [New] Global economic uncertainty, worsened by new US tariffs, will dampen trade and investment, significantly affecting Singapore's small, open economy. ST
• [New] Allianz Trade has maintained the UK at an AA1 country risk rating, one of the stronger grades on its scale, reflecting strong institutions and a relatively predictable policy and legal environment. Insurance Business
• [New] The repeal of IEEPA tariffs is expected to reduce the effective tariff rate on U.S. imports by roughly 7 percentage points, bringing it to an estimated 7 to 9%. Cushman & Wakefield
• [New] Many trade agreements struck with the US will remain in place and it appears that a tariff of 10-15% can be expected across most materials ongoing. Default
• [New] If negotiations stall, the Plan B 15% tariff could trigger a new round of retaliatory duties from China, specifically targeting the U.S. Midwest just as the 2026 planting season begins. The Chronicle-Journal
• [New] Beijing may want to send voters the message that supporting a hawkish leader could lead to pain through more trade controls or other means. Khaleej Times
• [New] Investors can expect a declining U.S. trade war in 2026, followed by a new escalation in 2027. Morningstar, Inc.
• [New] The Trump administration has signaled that tariffs on pharmaceuticals could potentially rise toward 200% by mid- to late-2026. J.P. MORGAN
• [New] The Trump administration has said that it will no longer impose new tariffs on eight European countries, after establishing a framework with NATO for a future deal regarding Greenland. J.P. MORGAN
• [New] For countries hit with the largest IEEPA tariff hikes (e.g., India, Brazil, China, Indonesia), revoking IEEPA would bring short-term relief and could even prompt a renewed round of front-loading before other tariffs are put in place. J.P. MORGAN
• [New] China Exposure: U.S. export curbs might dent sales, though Nvidia is exploring compliant variants. investing.com
• [New] Tariffs remain a central feature of US policy, causing disruption to supply chains which are more strained as trade patterns are shifting. The Conference Board
• [New] The recent blockage of the Suez Canal by the 400-metre-long 'Ever Given' container ship exposed the vulnerability of global trade routes. commonspace.eu
• [New] The repercussions of the joint military operation by the US and Israel against Iran and subsequent retaliatory action will see the further weaponization of trade and shatter hopes of a large-scale return of container shipping to the Red Sea in 2026. WorldCargo News
• [New] EU signals return to ratification track after tariff threat lifted: European Parliament leadership indicated the EU is likely to resume internal work on ratifying a U.S.-EU trade deal after President Trump withdrew a tariff threat tied to Greenland-related tensions. iContainers
• The world in 2026 will experience the impact of heightened geoeconomic competition as the two major trading powers; the US and China continue to use tariffs and export controls to reshape the global economy to their advantage. ORF Middle East
• As trade between countries of the Global South grows in 2026, connectivity projects such as the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), 24 Masterplan on ASEAN Connectivity 2025, and South Connection linking eleven countries of Latin America will receive a boost. ORF Middle East

Last updated: 05 March 2026