Trade

WHAT'S NEXT?: Global trade policies could be upended with a new President in the White House, Brexit, a potential break-up of the European Union and China reacting to these changes in profound ways.

[New] President Trump is lashing out against the World Bank for lending to China, the US and China still do not have a trade deal, and global investors are back to fretting the trade war between the world's two largest economies will drag on forever.
[New] Despite ongoing protectionist sentiments and continued trade policy uncertainty, growth in the world trade volume of goods and services is forecasted to remain unchanged at 4.0% in 2019, albeit well below the 2017 growth.
[New] The US government stated that if China retaliated to the latest round of measures, tariffs could be imposed on an additional $267 billion of imports.
[New] Cooling domestic and global momentum, prolonged and expanding trade tensions and policy uncertainty remain major risks to international traveler sentiment.
[New] Global trade in goods is expected to be below trend in the fourth quarter of 2019 due to increase in trade tensions and tariffs in key sectors but there is a slight improvement since August this year.
[New] Valuations in most other markets are much more reasonable, but ongoing political risks in Europe and trade tensions with the United States could continue to weigh on developed ex US markets.
[New] A modest recovery is forecast for 2020, with European growth reaching 1.8 percent, as global trade is expected to pick up and some economies recover from past stresses.
[New] There is a risk that US trade policy towards China and others could cause a broader slowdown in global growth in 2020, although trade tensions continue to ebb and flow from month to month.
[New] With world cotton mill use projected to reach new heights, trade prospects for a number of countries are also forecast to reach record levels over the next 10 years.
[New] The OECD now expects a slowing in the world economy to 2.9% this year and 3.0% in 2020, in response to the escalating trade policy tensions that affect confidence and investment and create policy uncertainty.
[New] Asian airlines are cautious about the outlook for 2020 after trade disputes undermined confidence and led to economic growth below initial forecasts this year.
[New] To be sure, benchmark oil futures do not necessarily follow the physical market and could still decline next year if global oil demand falls because of the U.S.-China trade dispute or if U.S. oil output surprises again on the upside.
[New] Economies in the Caucasus and Central Asia will expand by an overall 4.5% in both 2019 and 2020 despite global trade tensions and slowing growth in key trading partners.
[New] The escalation in trade protectionism has contributed to the sharper-than-expected slowing in global growth over the past year and a half.
[New] Measures of trade and economic policy uncertainty have increased sharply during 2019 and surveys suggest that investors view a trade war as the top risk to the global outlook.
[New] There should be a good opportunity for a bounce back in the coming year, but the global trade uncertainty will impact growth; especially if no deal with China is made.
[New] The Trump administration will allow some U.S. suppliers to resume shipping to the Chinese telecom giant easing export restrictions while U.S. negotiators struggle to wrap up the first stage of a trade deal.
[New] Lower forecast prices in 2020 reflect a decline in US gas demand and slowing gas export growth, allowing inventories to remain higher than the 5-year average during the year even as gas production growth is forecast to slow.
[New] The Trump administration is reportedly set to extend a license, set to expire Monday, that will let U.S. companies continue engaging in some transactions with Chinese telecom giant Huawei Technologies, which was put on the export-restriction list earlier this year.
[New] The poultry play comes as the United States and China strive to put the finishing touches on a trade agreement President Donald Trump hopes will exponentially grow Chinese purchases of U.S. farm products to an ambitious annual figure of $40 billion to $50 billion.
With the limited domestic supply, and being in the early stages of RE development, Vietnam is expected to rely much on imported energy sources in the coming years.
If US tariffs on Chinese imports go into effect this year, it will compound the slowdown in US and global economic growth.

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Last updated: 12 December 2019