Trade

WHAT'S NEXT?: Global trade policies could be upended with a new President in the White House, Brexit, a potential break-up of the European Union and China reacting to these changes in profound ways.

[New] B2B online sales is expected to account for 27 percent of total manufacturing trade, which is likely to hit USD 25 trillion by the end of this year, with China and the United States leading the B2B online retailing market.
[New] As international trade and investment recover, global growth is projected to edge up to 2.5 percent in 2020-0.2 percentage point below previous forecasts - and gradually Irm over the forecast horizon, reaching 2.7 percent by 2022.
[New] 2019, by far the weakest pace since the global financial crisis - is projected to firm throughout 2020 and reach 1.9 percent, assuming trade tensions do not re - escalate.
[New] With some recent data pointing to an incipient stabilization of economic conditions, global growth is projected to edge up to 2.5 percent in 2020, 0.2 percentage point below previous forecasts, as investment and trade gradually recover.
[New] Global growth is expected to recover to 2.5 percent in 2020-up slightly from the post-crisis low of 2.4 percent registered last year amid weakening trade and investment - and edge up further over the forecast horizon.
[New] The World Bank on Wednesday trimmed its global growth forecasts slightly for 2019 and 2020 due to a slower-than-expected recovery in trade and investment despite cooler trade tensions between the United States and China.
[New] China will cut tariffs on hundreds of products ranging from frozen pork to high-tech parts next year, lowering trade barriers to support the economy.
[New] The Thai economy could improve in the year ahead, especially if the planned signing of the 16-nation Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership attracts new investment from companies seeking to offset risks from the U.S.-China trade war.
[New] Some special factors will boost GDP growth over the first half of next year; the phase one trade deal with China will also help a little.
[New] Signing of the trade deal on Wednesday eases Trump's 18-month trade war aimed at altering China's trade and economic practices, but will leave in place tariffs on about $370bn worth of Chinese imports per year.
[New] Despite concerns of slowdown in the European Union, the escalating trade war between the United States and China, and Brexit uncertainty in the fourth quarter, analysts project Hungary to deliver a 5% growth for the whole fiscal year of 2020.
[New] With more local supply to come in 2020, Chinese import controls will be a lasting feature and lead to a 25 million-ton drop in thermal coal purchases next year.
[New] Protracted trade tensions are expected to negatively affect the outlook for major agricultural commodities while the prices of precious metals, such as gold, will likely benefit from heightened uncertainty in and weaker prospects of the global economy.
There will remain over the coming year the risk of more trade conflicts with EU states - and little likelihood of serious progress toward the U.S.-U.K. bilateral trade pact that Trump has dangled before Brexiteers.
The U.S. in 2020, the United States will export more energy than it imports as increases in crude oil and natural gas production outpace growth in U.S. energy consumption.
If no trade deal is in place by the end of 2020 and there is no extension, the UK faces major disruption to its economy with tariffs and quantity restrictions immediately applied to goods sold into the single market.
Despite a tentative Phase 1 U.S. trade deal with China, larger conflicts with Beijing remain unresolved and Trump could eventually impose tariffs on $160 billion in Chinese-made consumer products that were planned for mid-December but suspended because of the tentative agreement.
Cargo traffic is expected to grow 2.0% in 2020 after a year of slowing economic growth, trade wars, geopolitical tensions, uncertainty over Brexit and social unrest contributed to a 3.3% contraction in airline freight business.
Tariffs imposed or threatened by the United States and China could shave 0.8% off global economic output in 2020 and trigger more losses in future years.
China will lower tariffs on products ranging from frozen pork and avocado to some types of semiconductors next year as Beijing looks to boost imports amid a slowing economy and a trade war with the United States.
As the risk of a global economic downturn grows, the industrial manufacturing industry faces a challenging landscape in 2020 replete with trade tensions, muted job growth, supply chain volatility and an ongoing skilled talent shortage.

See full forecast

Last updated: 16 January 2020