Trade

WHAT'S NEXT?: Global trade policies could be upended with a new President in the White House, Brexit, a potential break-up of the European Union and China reacting to these changes in profound ways.

• [New] U.S. chicken exports to China skyrocketed in the first few months of 2020, but that trade is now forecast to begin cooling off as China's pork producers recover from African swine fever.
• [New] Freight transportation contributes significantly to global carbon emissions, and economic growth and global trade are expected to drive a doubling in freight-related emissions in the next 30 years.
• [New] World trade could shrink by 10% to 30% in 2020 alone, as the result of both COVID-19 and the ongoing tariff dispute between the United States and China.
• [New] Automobile component export from India is expected to reach US$ 80 billion by 2026.
• [New] Global trade in food is expected to improve by the end of 2020.
• [New] The UK should think carefully before pursuing a trade agreement that would further destabilise the EU's relationship with Turkey, and run the risk of being viewed as a deliberate provocation by Brussels.
• [New] Given the collapse in world trade, exports are forecast to decline strongly in 2020 and only see a muted recovery next year.
• Queensland producers currently have enough production to serve both the export and domestic markets in 2020, but adequately supplying the domestic market could be in doubt without additional infrastructure because of declining reserves.
• The UK becomes an early mover in the developing global import market, resulting in access to around 275 TWh of bioresources by 2050.
• Southeast Asia will continue to be one of the strongest gainers, increasing two-way trade by around $22 billion with the EU, $26 billion with the US, and $41 billion with China by the end of 2023, but still at a slower pace than the earlier four-year period.
• The USDA has scaled down its 2020-21 (Aug-Jul) cotton export estimate for the US to 15.0 mln bales from 16.0 mln bales projected in the previous month.
• Reflecting Belgium's position as a trade hub, imports are largely expected to evolve in line with exports, resulting in a contraction in 2020 and a rebound in 2021.
• For the first time since the 1950s, the United States will export more energy than it imports by 2020 as increases in crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas plant liquids production outpace growth in U.S. energy consumption.
• The move to remove Huawei equipment from the UK's 5G network by 2027 will cost billions and delay the deployment of 5G by up to three years, but the UK is trying to broker a post-Brexit trade deal with the US.
• Global cotton trade is forecast higher in 2020/21 and is projected at 42.9 million bales, 8% (3.1 million bales) above the previous season and the highest in 8 years.
• External risks such as worsening US-China relations, shrinking global demand and disruptions in supply chains are likely to pressure China's trade outlook in the long term.
• Between Canada's trade arrangements with Europe in 2017, and Trans-Pacific nations the year after (CPTPP) and the newly enacted deal with the United States and Mexico, by 2024 about 18% of dairy products in Canada will have originated in other countries.
• Worsening U.S.-China relations, shrinking global demand and disruptions in supply chains are likely to pressure the trade outlook over the long run.
• In terms of imports, concessions made as a result of trade deals will represent 18% of milk production in Canada by 2024.
• India plans to enhance trade with Bangladesh India is adopting a multi-pronged strategy to enhance trade and business partnership with Bangladesh amid Beijing's recent efforts to woo Dhaka with duty-free access to its products.
• By 2030 the EU wants 40 gigawatts of electrolyzers installed within its borders and another 40 gigawatts in place in nearby countries that can export to the EU - with North Africa one possibility.
• Constrained global export supplies of sheep meat in 2020-21 are expected to maintain high export prices despite the demand effects associated with COVID-19.

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Last updated: 06 August 2020