Global Scans · Trade · Weekly Summary

WHAT'S NEXT?: Global trade policies could be upended with a new President in the White House, Brexit, a potential break-up of the European Union and China reacting to these changes in profound ways.

• [New] Global trade growth is forecast to slow sharply to 1.9% in 2026 as U.S. tariff deadlines, a stalled EU deal, China redirections, and Middle East supply disruptions converge into the most complex trade environment in decades. Pomegra
• [New] Global merchandise trade volume will expand by only 1.9% in 2026, a dramatic deceleration from 4.6% growth the year prior. Pomegra
• [New] Chinese exports are projected to grow 4% to 9% across most non-U.S. regions, creating new trade corridors that are beginning to rival established Western routes in volume and strategic significance. Pomegra
• [New] Export controls on cobalt from the Democratic Republic of the Congo, combined with China's restrictions on rare-earth materials, have prompted nations to accelerate bilateral stockpiling agreements - a trend that fragments supply chains even as it reduces individual exposure to single-source risk. Pomegra
• [New] Rio Bravo Pipeline Project: A 138-mile pipeline originating in Texas with a capacity of up to 4.5 Bcf/d, which will deliver feedgas to NextDecade's under construction Rio Grande LNG export terminal. EIA - Energy Information Administration
• [New] The projects in Texas will provide additional takeaway capacity out of the Permian Basin and debottleneck the Waha Hub, supplying natural gas to LNG export terminals, as well as residential, power, and industrial users. EIA - Energy Information Administration
• [New] The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran has caused a global disruption of fertiliser and natural gas supplies, and has also cut off virtually all of Qatar's LNG export capacity. ST
• [New] An SWP Commentary highlighted that the conflict over the Strait of Hormuz following the US-Israel war against Iran is reshaping trade and energy routes between Europe and Asia, giving Turkey the opportunity to position itself as a key transit hub between East and West. PubAffairs Bruxelles
• [New] The Strait of Hormuz is a vital chokepoint for global oil shipments, and Iran's control over it could have far-reaching implications for regional security and international trade. Crypto Briefing
• [New] Hormuz tensions are exposing global shipping vulnerabilities as countries rethink trade routes, energy security and reliance on critical maritime choke points. CNBC
• [New] Liberal approaches to trade are threatened by US hostility and the growing mercantilism prompted by geopolitics and the securitization of key sectors, especially high-technology areas. East Asia Forum
• [New] Australia is most threatened by the erosion of the global trade regime and the broader rules governing international relations. East Asia Forum
• [New] Stability between Beijing and Washington increases confidence that trade routes, shipping lanes and investment flows will remain functional. The Times
• [New] U.S. deployments of battery energy storage systems continued growing in the first quarter of 2026, but trade and tariff fights could limit the growth trajectory. Industrial Info Resources
• [New] Bottom line for sourcing teams: USD 33 billion worth of Indian exports previously facing EU tariffs of 4-26% will now enter at zero duty. ET2C International
• [New] Tariff elimination combined with streamlined regulatory procedures and mutual recognition agreement pathways will significantly expand Indian pharmaceutical and medical device sales in Europe. ET2C International
• [New] The bilateral trade target of USD 25 billion by 2030, up from approximately USD 16 billion today, reflects mutual interest in building commercial depth that gives both sides strategic flexibility. KBA13 INSIGHT
• [New] President To Lam's visit to India, which set a bilateral trade target of USD 25 billion by 2030, reflects Hanoi's active work to diversify its export destination mix. KBA13 INSIGHT
• [New] President To Lam's state visit to New Delhi in early May, which led to an upgrade to an 'Enhanced Complete Strategic Partnership' and a bilateral trade target of USD 25 billion by 2030, reflects Hanoi's ongoing efforts to build strategic depth outside the US-China binary. KBA13 INSIGHT
• [New] Latin America and the Middle East & Africa are emerging as potential hydrogen production hubs, which could eventually stimulate downstream fuel cell deployment as export and domestic energy markets evolve. Vantage Market Research
• [New] U.S. tariffs will have implications for nearshoring strategies. Northern Trust
• [New] Guatemala presents opportunities in the digital trade sector, particularly in e-commerce, fintech, and digital services. Roza.Pace@trade.gov

Last updated: 04 June 2026