Trust

WHAT'S NEXT?: Trust in politicians and experts is falling fast. Privacy is under threat and may lead to a collapse of confidence in technology as the world is increasingly networked. Unless reliability, integrity, and surety can keep pace with accelerating change trust in anything but oneself may disappear.

• In addition to all values, there is a mounting evidence of sharp declines in tourism, supply chain disruptions, weak commodity demand, and falling consumer confidence.
• The coronavirus impact on confidence, financial markets, the travel sector and disruption to supply chains is expected to contribute towards downward revisions in all G20 economies in 2020, particularly ones strongly interconnected to China, such as Japan, Korea and Australia.
• The adverse impact on confidence, financial markets, the travel sector and disruption to supply chains contributes to the downward revisions in all G20 economies in 2020, particularly ones strongly interconnected to China, such as Japan, Korea and Australia.
• The ongoing coronavirus outbreak, which is affecting multiple countries, could impact the retail industry: The National Retail Federation called it out as a factor that could affect business confidence and retail sales in its forecast for US retail sales in 2020.
• Though Germany has ambitious plans to increase its reliance on variable renewable electricity, it will become more dependent on natural gas for electricity generation.
• A sharp slowdown in global growth is expected in the first half of 2020 as supply chains and commodities are hit by the coronavirus, tourism drops and lower confidence grows.
• Even in the best-case scenario of limited coronavirus outbreaks in countries outside China, a sharp slowdown in world growth is expected in the first half of 2020 as supply chains and commodities are hit, tourism drops, and confidence falters.
• The US economy is signalling a moderate rate of expansion and, although GDP growth is expected to slow somewhat in 2020, record low unemployment rates coupled with rising wages have supported a significant uplift in consumption and consumer confidence.
• Food prices globally are going to surge in 2020: The rise in food prices will drive inflation worldwide and could undermine confidence in financial markets.
• Given persistent policy uncertainty, weak business confidence and waning fiscal stimulus, GDP growth in the United States is forecast to slow from 2.2 per cent in 2019 to 1.7 per cent in 2020.
• Awareness of the cyber threat has grown rapidly in recent years, driven by companies' increasing reliance on data and IT systems and a number of high-profile incidents.
• Over the past year, consumer confidence has remained high despite the uncertainties of the trade war, the challenge of modernizing trade with Mexico and Canada, and a range of threats from global politics.
• Membership in CPTPP, which is a high - standard trade and investment regime, will provide U.S. and other foreign companies with incentives to diversify their supply chains away from China, thereby reducing their reliance on and vulnerability to China.
• Brazil 's outlook and risk picture is improving (+2% growth next year, after +1% this year) on the back of stronger domestic demand and exports that benefit from a lower exchange rate; higher business confidence after the pension reform approval and monetary policy easing should act as facilitators.
• The overall picture for 2020 is that global economic growth will continue at a modest pace, as the major economies will be buoyed by accommodative financial conditions and an increased reliance on household consumption as a source of growth instead of net exports and investment.
• Overall growth in Turkish economy will continue to be slow: Economic and political tensions will continue to bring uncertainty, whilst exchange rates and trading confidence will continue to be challenges.
• The UK housing market should start 2020 with a new mood of confidence, but continued political uncertainties will keep a lid on property prices, economists predict.
• Sub-Saharan Africa's growth is expected to improve to 2.9% this year, assuming investor confidence improves in some large economies, energy bottlenecks ease, a pick up in oil production contributes to a recovery in oil exporters and robust growth continues among agricultural commodity exporters.
• If such a rollback of trade war did occur, it might provide a significant boost to business confidence, economic activity, and EPS.
• Increased reliability at US PDH plants in recent years has resulted in sharp increases in propylene stocks in 2019, pressuring down prices, and some market participants expect high inventories to persist into 2020.

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Last updated: 29 March 2020