Global Scans · Trade · Weekly Summary

• [New] Global bond markets remain volatile, with rising yields early in 2025 providing selective opportunities, but recent declines warrant a more cautious approach to duration and credit risk. Seeking Alpha
• [New] The US economy is expected to slow further in the second half of the year, pressured by tight financial conditions, increasing delinquency rates, and rising inflation risk amid ongoing trade policy uncertainty and escalating conflict in the Middle East. Krungsri2020
• [New] Global inflation is forecast to decline from 4.5% in 2024 to around 3.6% in 2025, though downside progress remains vulnerable to commodity shocks, trade frictions, foreign exchange volatility and supply constraints. MIT OpenCourseWare
• [New] The imposition of US tariffs along with rising policy uncertainty will constrain the upside for business investment and exports. MIT OpenCourseWare
• [New] Lower goods demand from the U.S. could slow global trade and economic and corporate earnings growth in other countries, which could hurt the performance of international stocks. Schwab Brokerage
• [New] There are opportunities in abundance - growing global demand, high price margins, and new trade agreements with China - but also significant hurdles: community backlash, lack of standards, and weak supply chain coordination. vietnamnews.vn
• [New] The retail landscape has experienced relentless disruption in recent years - from pandemic-related closures of brick-and-mortar stores to the growing pressure of tariffs and global supply chain challenges. photobookmagazine.com
• [New] In mid-April, the WTO even anticipated a slight decline in global trade in goods in 2025, driven by a more than 10% drop in trade in North America. economic-research.bnpparibas.com
• [New] The tariff shock will hamper the growth of emerging economies, initially through a slowdown in US and global demand. economic-research.bnpparibas.com
• [New] Under the impact of the Trump administration's tariff policy and the acceleration of US-China decoupling, global economic growth is expected to slow, international trade to reconfigure and the reorganization of value chains to continue. economic-research.bnpparibas.com
• [New] Global oil demand is projected to grow by 1.3 mb/d in 2025, with significant contributions from non-OECD countries, while oil supply from non-DoC countries is expected to increase by 0.8 mb/d. Scribd
• [New] An angry Beijing has threatened countermeasures against countries which are signing trade deals with the U.S. at the expense of China to get tariff exemptions from Washington. Times of Oman
• [New] Persistent trade wars could continue disrupting global metal markets, creating unpredictable price movements and complicating strategic planning. Discovery Alert
• [New] The multipolarized development of the international currency system will help to raise its resilience and more effectively preserve global economic and financial stability. Watcher Guru
• [New] The largest predicted changes were observed in the Export and Energy Shocks, where in a worst-case scenario, TB incidence and mortality could increase by 5.0% and 4.9%, respectively, in 2035 compared to the No Shocks scenario. BioMed Central
• [New] TB incidence and mortality increased more than for the Export Restriction Shock and Energy Price Shock scenarios combined, with an additional 1.1 million (0.9, 1.3) TB episodes and 177.5 thousand (144.7, 224.3) deaths between 2022 and 2035 compared to the No Shocks scenario. BioMed Central
• [New] A wider conflict could severely disrupt global trade by threatening key maritime chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz, potentially causing soaring oil prices, global inflation, and shipping route disruptions. IBPS Guide
• [New] Existing and proposed tariffs are fragmenting global trade, threatening to disrupt established procurement strategies, reduce access to key markets, and challenge the ability of companies to leverage global specialization. Procurement Pro
• For the global economy, an expanding conflict adds to the risk of higher oil prices and an upward impulse to inflation. financialpost
• After plummeting post-Liberation Day, U.S. equity markets have climbed higher on hopes that pauses on tariffs will lead to trade deals, making any economic impact short-lived. Commonwealth Financial Network
• As doubt remains over the Chinese markets' accessibility, American beef exporters should actively seek new opportunities and take proactive steps to remain resilient amid potential future trade shifts. JD Supra
• With threats of a maritime blockade looming should the US decide to join the conflict on Israel's side, global energy markets are on edge. ArabNews

Last updated: 30 June 2025