Aviation

WHAT'S NEXT?: More than half of the expected new passengers over the next two decades will originate from China, which will displace the US as the world's largest aviation market by around 2029. More than half of the expected new passengers over the next two decades will originate from China, which will displace the US as the world's largest aviation market by around 2029. Sales of consumer and prosumer drones are soaring and the Federal Aviation Authority forecasts there will be more than 1.3 million licensed drone pilots by 2020 in the U.S. alone.

• [New] The global airline fleet is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 2.4% from 2021-2030, resulting in a fleet of 38,300 aircraft.
• Capable of carrying up to five people, a pilot and four passengers, VA-1X is set to be the world's first certified winged all-electric Vertical Take-Off and Landing (eVTOL) aircraft, and is on course to start commercial flights in 2024.
• 2020 is the worst year in aviation history, and airlines in the Asia-Pacific region alone are expected to report losses to the tune of $29 billion.
• Globally the F-16 fleet is expected to generate $49.3 billion in MRO demand over the next 10 years even as it shrinks from 2,792 aircraft in 2020 to 2,278 by 2029.
• Airlines in Europe will lose $21.5 billion in 2020, the worst year in aviation history.
• Once aviation recovers by the end of 2023, oil demand will go back to normal - aside from the competition from other sources of energy.
• The number of aircraft offering IFC will grow by more than double over the next 10 years, from 7,400 aircraft in 2018 to 23,000 in 2027 due to demand.
• Global oil demand is expected to be 91.9 million b/d in 2020, the first downgrade in several months, reflecting the stalling of mobility as the number of Covid-19 cases remains high [lead by] weakness in the aviation sector.
• A number of airlines, including Qantas and British Airways, have already announced that they are retiring their 747 fleets early and with passenger numbers not expected to recover fully until 2024, the demand for new wide-body aircraft remains low.
• As flying and the need to replace parts recover, we expect demand for used aircraft parts to grow steadily through 2022.
• Beginning in 2020, the average new aircraft is expected to overperform the CO2 standard by about 10%, eight years ahead of the enforcement of the ICAO requirement.
• The International Air Transport Association projects air traffic to double by 2037, and it foresees a manpower crunch as some 37,000 new aircraft are built and half a million additional pilots need to come on board.
• By 2035, hydrogen could provide much deeper decarbonisation when used in conjunction with existing airport and aircraft infrastructure, and could then support a complete transition from conventional jet fuel around 2050.
• The recovery trajectory in international air travel is slower than initially expected, with industry experts such as the International Air Transport Association (IATA) and the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) projecting a slower recovery of global passenger traffic in the near term.
• The aspirational forecast scenario reflects a faster rebound, estimating that the Global Commercial Aircraft market could hit $411.63 billion by 2025, at a compound annual growth rate of 6.2%.
• The rapid growth of drones - the commercial market in the US alone is expected to triple in size in the next five years - is one of the biggest issues impacting the aviation industry.
• All nine Poseidon aircraft, which are based on the Boeing 737 Next-Generation airliner, are expected to be in the UK by the end of 2021.
• Whether the winning technology is electric aircraft or hydrogen aircraft or both, more rapid progress to green flight will mean shorter runways, quieter aircraft, better air quality, and the real possibility of achieving net zero carbon ahead of 2045.
• Aviation, one of Global Eagle's largest customer segments, is not expected to see a substantial recovery in passenger traffic until 2023, while major cruise lines have suspended operations through mid-September.
• The digital sector currently accounts for 4% of global CO2 emissions, i.e. more than the aviation sector, and is growing much faster than other sectors; around +8% per year is expected in the coming years, with an explosion of the Internet of Things and global traffic of 50% by 2022.
• Total final energy demand in aviation in 2050 is reduced by 8%, and total final demand for liquid jet fuel in that year declines by more than 50 Mtoe, or about 15% of 2019 consumption, compared with the Sustainable Development Scenario.
• Total UK aviation emissions will exceed the maximum level allowed for in the Committee on Climate Change modelling for net zero, which already anticipates aviation having the highest emissions of any sector by 2050.
• Several large airlines have announced heavy job losses and reduced orders for new aircraft, indicating that they expect a long-lasting reduction in demand for flights.

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Last updated: 20 September 2020