Aviation

WHAT'S NEXT?: More than half of the expected new passengers over the next two decades will originate from China, which will displace the US as the world's largest aviation market by around 2029. More than half of the expected new passengers over the next two decades will originate from China, which will displace the US as the world's largest aviation market by around 2029. Sales of consumer and prosumer drones are soaring and the Federal Aviation Authority forecasts there will be more than 1.3 million licensed drone pilots by 2020 in the U.S. alone.

• [New] By 2050, aviation could take up a quarter of the world's carbon budget, the amount of emissions permitted to keep global temperature rise around 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels.
• [New] Four pilot-plants in Europe will come in operation over the coming years to produce green hydrogen-based steel.
• The International Air Transport Association (IATA) forecasts that global passenger numbers will almost double by 2037, reaching 8.2 billion annually: To match that demand, the aviation industry is continuing to raise output to historic highs.
• The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) calls for a significant proportion of conventional aviation fuels to be substituted with sustainable aviation fuels by 2050 in its 2050 Vision for Sustainable Aviation Fuels.
• After years of expansion, AirAsia expects to end 2020 with 242 aircraft in its fleet, down one from last year.
• On current trends, aviation is likely to be the largest emitting sector in the UK by 2050; emissions are forecast to grow both in real terms and as a proportion of total UK emissions.
• Emissions from the aviation sector could be slashed by 38% in 2020 as it faces longer-term pressure to become carbon neutral.
• IATA expects the near-total shutdown of global aviation to cut industry revenue this year by more than half, with the $314 billion hit threatening 25 million jobs, and is backing airline demands for government support.
• Seeking to improve air traffic management and safety procedures, the aviation industry will focus on connectivity in aircraft cockpits in the coming year.
• Airlines are lobbying to rewrite the rules of a global agreement designed to tackle aviation emissions, with the coronavirus outbreak expected to make its targets tougher to meet.
• International Air Transport Association has projected a 38% cut to air travel in 2020 which equates to a 352.7 Mt fall in global civil aviation emissions compared to last year.
• The Committee on Climate Change has made numerous public calls for the UK to include territorial emissions from international aviation and shipping under the new net-zero target for 2050.
• Britain's biggest airports including Heathrow and Gatwick have written to Prime Minister Boris Johnson to ask that any government support for the aviation industry should include help for airports, which they said could have to shut completely.
• The HUD VR Trainer is well-suited to the aviation industry's demand for HUD-trained pilots, particularly in China, where the government has mandated that all transport aircraft be equipped with HUDs by 2025.
• Although the UK has legislated to reduce its emissions to net zero by 2050, it has not formally included international aviation in its legally binding emissions reduction targets, despite the recommendation from the CCC that it should.
• As well as UK targets, the government should push for ICAO, the UN's international aviation body, to set a long term target to limit gross emissions from global aviation, and a separate target to reach net zero for global aviation by 2050 or earlier.
• SA's Road-Map shows how under a 'no improvement' scenario UK aviation would generate 71 MtCO2 / yr in 2050 - approximately equivalent to what all the cars on the UK's road emit each year today.
• The International Airlines Group (which includes British Airways, Iberia and Aer Lingus) has committed to net zero carbon dioxide emissions by 2050 through carbon offsets, carbon capture and investment in sustainable aviation fuels ($400m).
• Actively driving a domestic SAF sector would put the UK at the forefront of world leading aviation climate solutions, create thousands of clean growth jobs and provide a significant UK export opportunity as aviation decarbonises globally.
• The recent announcement by the UK Government to advance the ban on internal combustion engines from 2040 to 2035 may help to accelerate the decarbonisation of passenger vehicles, but still leaves challenges around commercial road transport, shipping and aviation.
• Emissions from aviation including military aircraft are assumed to be static out to 2030, followed by a linear reduction to complete decarbonisation by 2075.
• Aviation is a key contributor to climate change - making up 2.4% of global emissions And, if past trends continued, emissions would be expected to triple by 2050.
• With the start of the ground-breaking global Carbon Offset and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation agreement in 2021, the aviation sector is taking significant steps to harness the power of market forces to tackle climate change.

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Last updated: 24 May 2020