Brazil

WHAT'S NEXT?: A recession in Brazil is expected to bottom out with growth turning positive starting in 2017. Its economy is expected to require a long period of fiscal and monetary adjustment after the political turmoil and public discontent of the last two years.

• [New] The U.S. imposed steel and aluminum tariffs on Brazil and Argentina earlier this year, but their economies are expected to grow this year.
• Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia.
• China and India would become the first and third largest economies by 2050, with Brazil and Russia capturing the fifth and sixth spots.
• Brazil is the largest exporter of poultry products, followed by the United States, the EU, and Thailand: Brazil's exports increase by 46.1%, reaching 6.05 million tons by 2029.
• In 2029/30, Argentina, Brazil, and the United States are projected to account for 51, 15, and 8% of world soybean oil exports by 2029/30, respectively.
• Brazil will continue to be China's leading supplier in 2020, but will see its market share (over 80% for the last 3 years) shrink due to a minimum pricing agreement its major producers struck with China's government in 2019, combined with new competition.
• The middle class in India is predicted to grow faster than counterparts in China or Brazil, at 1.4% a year between now and 2022.
• Bottled water, bulk sales in Brazil are expected to offset volume declines seen in the last couple of years, while intermediary packs should continue to grow in volume terms.
• The decline in Brazil's infrastructure market seen in 2019 was expected due to the change in government, which has impacted business in 2019, particularly at the beginning of the year, with expectations around the pension reform.
• Players from the hog sector in Brazil expect that the good results registered in 2019 continue this year because of the global production decrease.
• Genetically engineered drought-tolerant soybeans have been approved in the US, Brazil, Paraguay, and Argentina - where they are expected to be planted later this year.
• China's rising imports and easing U.S.-China trade tensions are favorable for U.S. exports to some degree, but Brazilian exports are expected to remain near record levels and the United States will face additional competition early in the season.
• BNPL solutions are the fastest-growing online payment methods in the United States as well as Australia, Brazil, the United Kingdom and more, and their market share is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 28% over the next five years.
• Consumers in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru will spend $129 billion online by 2023, representing a compound annual growth rate of 22.3% from 2018.
• The Big Five countries globally will be China, India, United States, Brazil and Indonesia by 2025.
• Regional growth is expected to contract in 2020 as the three main economies (Brazil, Mexico and Argentina) of the region fall in recession.
• The baseline, based on actual national biofuel plans, assumes continued expansion in production of biofuels through 2025, although the rate of expansion declines after 2010 for the early rapid growth countries such as the United States and Brazil.
• By 2020, the United States is projected to put 130 million t of maize into biofuel production; European countries will use 10.7 million t of wheat and 14.5 million t of oil seeds; and Brazil will use 9 million t of sugar equivalent.
• Latin America: The region is heavily susceptible to the strength of the US dollar, which resulted in a 1.1% decline in adspend last year: A further fall, of 2.5%, is forecast this year, with Brazil recording a 4.3% dip to $14.3bn.
• The brief offers a prelimin2020 worldwide wheat production - very close to the near-record level of 2019 - and indicates that coarse grain output in 2020 will likely be strong in Argentina, Brazil and South Africa.
• Renault predicts the global automotive market should decline this year with Europe at least down -3%, Russia at around -3% and the Brazilian market up around 5%.

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Last updated: 02 June 2020