Space
A Future Prognosis
Athena @ Shaping Tomorrow
28 December 2024
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By the end of this decade, the U.S. and its allies could face a gap in American presence in LEO amidst a continued Chinese interest in strategic lunar geography - a scenario with implications not only for science and exploration but also for U.S. leadership and the global space economy.
SpaceNews
China has launched a probe to collect samples from the far side of the moon in a world first, part of its goal to land a human on the lunar surface by 2030.
The Guardian
China has launched a probe to collect samples from the far side of the moon - in a world first - as part of its goal to land a human on the lunar surface by 2030.
The Guardian
Global regions, coloured according to number of forecasts
SWOT
Strengths
- The next level of abundance - energy - will unlock new opportunities for humanity to explore beyond Earth (such as the Moon and Mars) and transition from a 3D reality to a 6 D reality, progressing rapidly toward 12D and beyond. Medium
- While China's lunar and commercial space activities currently receive strong central backing, it remains to be seen how and when its Queqiao constellation plans will be deployed. SpaceNews
- North America leads the way in commercial space activities, with a thriving ecosystem of startups and entrepreneurs exploring opportunities in satellite services, space tourism, asteroid mining, and beyond. Precedence Research
Weaknesses
- Japan has similar ambitions for space - and is already collaborating with India on the Lupex (Lunar Polar Exploration) project, which starts in 2025 and concerns the exploration of the Moon. News Bulletin 247
- Scientists will undoubtedly continue to contend with similarly difficult questions as they search for signs of alien life in samples returned from the moon, Mars and, perhaps someday, intriguing icy satellites of the outer solar system's giant planets. Scientific American
- Hab-1 is designed keeping in mind that space is going to be very limited on the Moon or Mars. Inside Telecom
Opportunities
- As the space industry embarks on ambitious missions, such as returning humans to the Moon and sending astronauts to Mars, the U.S. has an opportunity to inspire the next generation of scientists, engineers, and explorers. New Space Economy
- With the further growth and development of space sector, India has an opportunity to lead the other Artemis countries alongside the U.S. Free UPSC IAS Preparation Syllabus and Materials For As
- The CAPSTONE mission continues to demonstrate the potential of small satellites in unique orbits, paving the way for future lunar exploration and the Lunar Gateway, part of NASA's Artemis campaign. Hawkdive Media
Threats
- In addition to advancing mineral exploration on Earth, Fleet Space is developing technology for future lunar missions, including a smart seismic sensor system (SPIDER) for the Moon, scheduled for deployment in 2026. Beyond Horizons by Hui Ling
- The high-energy particles and intense radiation emitted during a solar flare can have serious health risks for individuals in space, including astronauts aboard the International Space Station (ISS) or on long-duration missions to the Moon and beyond.
- Ghost Riders in the Sky - the mission name chosen by US start-up Firefly Aerospace - will target a landing in the Sea of Crisis, a dark patch the size of Britain on the near-side of the moon. SKY
Influencers
Countries
Cities
People
Organizations
PEST
Political
- Although many missions and operations are conducted at great physical distances-for example, China's recent unmanned mission to the far side of the Moon, the opportunity to disregard international law and custom or for malfeasance or misconduct increases without monitoring and the ability to audit. Harvard International Law Journal
- In a certain way, soft law instruments, as the Artemis Accords, might lead to the harmonization of the Law of Outer Space and might contribute to the application of core concepts present in the Outer Space Treaty, such as the principle of 'due regard'. Springer Nature Switzerland
- Broad international participation and transparency in the selection of lunar time standards will be important for securing global legitimacy and buy-in. New Space Economy
Economic
- Just as the Apollo astronauts famously bounced around on NASA's first-gen lunar rovers, the Artemis missions will use new Lunar Terrain Vehicles.
- Additional increases of 6.6% to 12.7% are forecast in January, March and April, with a 4.1% decrease in February due to Lunar New Year factory closings in Asia. International Business Times
- Inbound cargo volume in February is forecast to decline 4.1% to 1.87 million TEUs because of fluctuations in the timing of Lunar New Year shutdowns at Asian factories. Sourcing Journal
Social
- The Artemis 1 mission that launched in November, as well as the next two Artemis missions, are slash will be powered by Block 1 rockets.
- The Artemis missions will spend the rest of the decade setting up humanity's first extraterrestrial outpost.
- China aims to build a basic robotic ILRS by 2035, with five launches to establish power, communications and other infrastructure for a sustainable lunar base. SpaceNews
Technological
- If the U.S. or other major spacefaring nations are seen as unilaterally imposing a lunar time system, it could be interpreted by other countries as an overreach or even a step towards asserting sovereignty and enabling lunar colonialism. New Space Economy
- Discrepancies could lead to errors in guidance systems and the tracking of objects in cislunar space (the area under the gravitational influence of the Earth and moon). New Space Economy
- Europe is positioning itself to build autonomous capabilities ready to capitalise on the growing opportunities presented by the Moon's untapped potential. Analysys Mason
PETs are projected to unleash between $1.1 trillion and $2.9 trillion of value, as highlighted in a report by Lunar Ventures.
Syntheticus AG
Ives said that if the Trump administration increases funding for NASA's efforts to return to the moon and travel to Mars, SpaceX's value could easily increase to $500 billion or more.
CNN
EUS costs are expected to balloon to $2 billion through 2025 and reach $2.8 billion by the time Artemis IV lifts off in 2028.
Flying Magazine
By the end of this decade, the U.S. and its allies could face a gap in American presence in LEO amidst a continued Chinese interest in strategic lunar geography - a scenario with implications not only for science and exploration but also for U.S. leadership and the global space economy.
SpaceNews
The robotic Chang' e 5 returned lunar samples back to Earth in 2020 and Chang' e 6, which launches in May 2024, will bring back the first samples from the Moon's far side.
BBC
NASA's Artemis II mission, a warmup for a lunar landing planned for 2025, will mark the first time astronauts have gone beyond low Earth orbit since the Apollo 17 mission, in 1972.
IEEE Spectrum
U.S. officials fear thatupon achieving global space power status, China may utilize tactics in space to advanceterritorial claims on Earth and attempt to lay claim to lunar resources.
JD Supra
As the 80% illuminated Moon aligns with Neptune, the planet will disappear behind the Moon's unilluminated edge and reappear from its bright side.
AstroTelescopium
Moons around other planets, especially gas giants, could have similarly complex and unexpected origins.
The Daily Galaxy - Great Discoveries Channel
Key topics
The new moon falls at 16 degrees of Cancer, forming a very close sextile to Uranus, the planet of rebellion and electrifying change, which will be at 15 degrees of fellow earth sign Taurus.
InStyle
NASA plans to get humans back on the Moon within this decade, so designing systems that make a sustained human presence possible on our cold, atmosphere - less satellite are of utmost importance.
Gizmodo
Artemis II will mark the debut crewed flight - but not the first lunar landing - of an Apollo successor program aimed at returning astronauts to the moon's surface later this decade and ultimately establishing a sustainable outpost there as a stepping stone to future human exploration of Mars.
chinadailyhk